Are Backlinks Becoming a Secondary Ranking Factor?

What Specific Role Do Backlinks Play According to This Statement?

Google repositions links as a discovery and initial contextualization signal rather than a dominant factor for ongoing ranking. In practical terms, backlinks help crawlers find a new site, evaluate its topic, and build an initial map of its relative authority.

This approach contrasts with the traditional view of SEO where accumulating links remains the top priority for maintaining or improving rankings. Mueller suggests that other signals gradually take precedence once Google has assimilated the site's DNA.

What Does “Organic Growth” Mean in This Context?

The term “organic growth” refers here to a site's ability to improve its rankings without active link building campaigns. This implies that Google relies more on criteria such as content quality, user engagement, freshness of updates, or technical performance.

This “growth” does not mean that links become useless — simply that they are no longer the exclusive fuel for the ranking engine. An already established site can thus advance through optimizing its existing pages, improving its UX, or producing content that better meets search intents.

Why Does Google Emphasize the “Initial” Phase?

The notion of “initial” pertains to the critical period when Google does not yet have sufficient behavioral data to assess a site. Without a history of clicks, bounce rates, or time spent on-page, the engine necessarily relies on external signals — and links are the main ones.

Once the site is integrated into the index and visitors generate measurable interactions, Google can recalibrate its assessment based on more direct metrics. This aligns with the evolution of the algorithm towards predictive models that heavily exploit user signals.

• Backlinks Serve as a Launchpad for the initial discovery and understanding of the thematic context
• Growth can then rely on on-site and behavioral signals without constant addition of links
• This statement does not disqualify links, but relativizes their ongoing weight compared to other factors
• An established site benefits from a history of data that Google leverages to refine ranking independently of the link profile
• The focus is on the overall quality of the site rather than a race for backlink volume

Does This Assertion Reflect the Ground Observations of SEOs?

Yes and no. In competitive niches — finance, health, e-commerce — no site remains in the top 3 without a solid link profile. Data scrapers show a persistent correlation between backlink volume/quality and rankings. Hard to ignore this pattern.

On the other hand, it is indeed observed that niche sites with few new links continue to progress if they update their content, improve their internal structure, and generate engagement. [To be verified]: Google does not provide any numerical metrics on the relative weight of links versus other factors depending on the site's maturity.

What Nuances Should We Add to This Statement?

Mueller speaks to the general case, but the reality is segmented by sector and search intent. For YMYL (Your Money Your Life) queries, links from authoritative domains remain an almost mandatory filter — Google cannot afford to rank a medical advice site without external trust signals.

Similarly, ultra-competitive transactional queries (“car insurance,” “best VPN”) show that sites that loosen their link building lose ground rapidly. “Organic growth” works better on less competitive long-tail informational queries where link competition is lower.

In What Cases is This Rule Clearly Not Applicable?

Three scenarios where links remain decisive: launching a new site in a saturated niche (impossible to break through without strong initial links), repositioning after a penalty (quality links accelerate rehabilitation), and defending positions against aggressive competitors who continue to invest heavily in link building.

Let’s be honest: Mueller's statement seems like an attempt to dissuade spam link practices by publicly minimizing their importance. But behind the scenes, PageRank and its modern derivatives continue to carry significant weight — otherwise, Google wouldn't invest so much in detecting PBNs and artificial link schemes.

How to Adapt Your SEO Strategy in Light of This Evolution?

First step: audit your site's maturity. If you are less than 6 months old and have low traffic, links remain a priority to accelerate discovery and initial credibility. After this milestone, switch to a hybrid model.

In practical terms, allocate 60% of your time/resources budget to on-site optimization — redesigning underperforming content, improving the internal linking structure, optimizing Core Web Vitals, enriching semantics. The remaining 40% should be for targeted qualitative link building, not sheer volume.

What Mistakes Should Absolutely Be Avoided?

Classic error: ceasing all link building efforts on the pretext that “Google says it’s no longer important.” That’s not what Mueller claims. He says it’s not the only factor anymore, a crucial nuance. A site that stagnates on its link profile for 12 months risks being surpassed by competitors.

Another trap: over-investing in low-quality links thinking that “a few links will suffice.” If you are doing link building, prioritize thematic relevance and actual authority. Ten links from zombie blogs bring nothing — a single link from a reputable media outlet can change the game.

How to Measure if Your Site is Already Benefiting from This “Organic Growth”?

Analyze your ranking curves versus link acquisition. If your rankings are increasing on strategic queries without a direct correlation to new backlinks, that's a good sign — Google is leveraging other signals. Track these metrics in Data Studio or a similar tool.

Another indicator: the ranking velocity on freshly published content. A mature site ranks quickly (top 20 in a few days) even without external link pushes, as Google already trusts it contextually. If your new articles remain invisible for weeks, your site still lacks foundational signals.

• Audit the age and traffic volume to determine the site’s maturity phase
• Rebalance the budget between link building (40%) and on-site optimization (60%) for established sites
• Maintain continuous quality link building even in maturity phase — never a complete stop
• Track ranking progress independently of link campaigns to validate organic growth
• Prioritize optimizing existing content and internal linking as complementary levers
• Avoid low-quality link building that dilutes authority instead of strengthening it
  Mueller's statement invites a move away from a single-factor view of SEO. Mature sites should capitalize on their history by strengthening on-site and behavioral signals, while new sites cannot skip a structured link acquisition phase. This hybrid strategy requires a fine orchestration of multiple technical and editorial levers. For organizations lacking internal resources or cross-functional expertise, support from a specialized SEO agency can be crucial — it provides a 360° vision and adjusts priorities based on actual performance signals rather than outdated dogmas.